According to analysts, an additional 1.45 to 1.7 million TEUs will be needed for the planned diversions from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope on the Asia-Europe route.

The rerouting will account for 5-6% of the global capacity. It will reduce the current overcapacity in the shipping market but will also increase the freight rates. The impact on container shipping rates will appear after four weeks, and the delay will also be as long as up to four weeks due to the ship diversions.

Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief data analyst, said that the rerouting will lead to an extra 3,000 miles to go around Africa to Europe, and an additional US$1 million in fuel costs per vessel will be passed onto customers.

Some shipping companies, such as Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, have started charging a war risk surcharge of US$20 to US$100 per container, and ZIM charges more for longer routes around Africa.