China, contributing 54% of global crude steel production, faces a challenging 2025 due to continued weak domestic demand. Despite the projected growth in steel consumption for manufacturing sectors, construction steel demand is expected to decline significantly, dragging overall steel consumption down. 

The steel demand forecast for 2025 is 850 million tons, a drop from 870 million tons in 2024. While manufacturing steel demand may rise: machinery (+3%), automotive (+1.5%), shipbuilding (+6.4%), home appliances (+2.8%), and new energy (+5.5%). However, a reduction of 20 million tons in construction steel is anticipated. This decline is likely to depress steel prices further. 

Amid easing raw material supplies and weaker iron ore prices, Chinese steel exports face headwinds from global anti-dumping measures and domestic real estate struggles. Experts predict that 2025 will be a tough year for China’s steel industry.