July 17, the overall performance of the Chinese steel market was average, with most items maintaining stable prices. Active items such as rebar and hot rolled coils showed little change, reflecting a market sentiment of cautious observation and moderate transaction volumes. The market remains in a dilemma, heavily influenced by policy directions and external factors rather than basic supply and demand.

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a domestic rate cut in China have strengthened. Traders have increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut starting in September from about 70% to over 80%. The surge in gold prices following an attack on Trump has heightened demand for safe-haven assets, drawing further attention to Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the market believes that this event will increase Trump's re-election chances and influence future monetary policy, it could directly impact the dollar exchange rate and global liquidity, thereby affecting the commodities market.

Trump's policies are to ease the Russia-Ukraine conflict, promote U.S. manufacturing, and maintain protectionist stances, creating uncertainty in global trade and potentially leading to increased commodity price volatility. Typically, Federal Reserve rate cuts lead to rising commodity prices by lowering capital costs and stimulating economic growth and investment. However, steel prices are more influenced by domestic factors in China and lack the speculative attributes of gold, silver, or copper, necessitating caution in the steel industry.

Currently, the steel market is in a state of weak balance. The market awaits clearer policy signals. In the short term, China's domestic and international events continue to disrupt the market, preventing a clear trend from emerging.