Ukraine’s steel industry could face export losses of US$1.6 billion by 2030 due to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to a GMK Center study.

In 2024, Ukraine exported US$3.3 billion worth of steel products to the EU. However, with the full implementation of CBAM, the sector may need to pay US$311 million in carbon taxes, a cost expected to rise as CO₂ prices increase and free allowances in the EU’s emissions trading system phase out.

By 2030, Ukrainian exports of cement, fertilizers, pig iron, square billets, and long products may become uncompetitive due to their carbon intensity. Additionally, potential investment losses could reach US$2.7 billion, with export losses totaling US$4.7 billion. Given these risks, Ukrainian businesses are urging government action, including renegotiating trade terms with the EU to mitigate CBAM’s economic impact.