In the first half of 2024, China experienced strong growth in steel exports. According to customs statistics, China exported 53.4 million tons of steel in the first half year, marking a 24% increase year-on-year.

The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that the robust growth in steel exports is likely to continue, albeit at a slower pace. The improving global trade environment is expected to sustain stable growth in steel exports. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 2.6% growth in global goods trade volume in 2024, continuing into 2025 with a 3.3% increase. This global economic growth is driving strong demand for Chinese products, boosting steel exports.

China's policy measures to stabilize foreign trade have strengthened the competitiveness of its steel and related product exports. This year, the government has implemented various policies on exchange rates, credit, insurance, and taxation to stabilize exports. These measures are expected to enhance export orders for steel and mechanical and electrical products in the second half of the year, particularly in the "Belt and Road" markets.

China's advanced production capacity system provides a robust foundation for exporting steel and related products. This competitive edge is further strengthened by the moderate depreciation of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US dollar, enhancing export competitiveness. In the first half of 2024, due to different monetary policies between China and the US, the CNY depreciated moderately. This trend is expected to continue, potentially increasing the price advantage of China's steel exports.

In the short term, foreign importers, including those from the US, are starting a new stockpiling cycle. Recent events, such as Trump's shooting and rising protectionist threats from the EU, are prompting importers to stock up in anticipation of potential tariffs. This increased stockpiling is likely to boost the export volume of Chinese goods, including steel and related products, within the year.