Nickel prices rose following reports that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025. However, with a five-year transition period written into the policy, its immediate impact on the nickel supply chain is expected to be limited. As initial market reactions fade, prices are likely to return to fundamental trends and remain volatile.

The proposed ban, passed in its third reading by the Philippine Senate on February 3, aims to promote domestic mineral processing and downstream industries. The bill, amended by the Senate President, would take effect five years after being signed into law.

The Philippines remains China’s largest source of nickel ore, supplying about 85.54% of the 206.55 million tons imported between 2020 and 2024. While a future ban could disrupt the supply chain, its implementation faces uncertainties due to the country’s infrastructure challenges and global market oversupply. Analysts expect short-term nickel prices to fluctuate, impacted by weak demand and production cuts in China’s stainless steel sector.