According to Australia’s government’s June Resources and Energy Quarterly report, the country expects a decline in iron ore export revenues from $116 billion in the 2024-2025 fiscal year to $97 billion in fiscal year 2026-2027. The decline is mainly from slow global demand for steel, production cuts in China, and rising market saturation from Brazil and Africa.

The report also showed the FOB iron ore prices with 62% Fe dropped by an average from $93 per ton in 2024 to $83 per ton in 2025 and $74 per ton in 2027. Also, China cut its steel production due to profit decline and slow demand in the real estate market. In January to May this year, China’s steel production was down by 1% from the same period last year.

The iron ore shipments from Australia went down by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Even if the government anticipates shipping 927 million tons of iron ore in 2026-2027, the falling global prices and a stronger Australian dollar will reduce the exporting profits. 

Within given conditions, Australia is still the top iron ore supplier in the global market, contributing over 50% of global iron ore exports.