The dry bulk market may struggle to maintain its strong performance in 2025 as new ship deliveries surpass trade volume growth. Maritime Strategies International (MSI) predicts a decline in average earnings for dry bulk carriers by up to 19%, driven by an oversupply of capacity and muted demand.

According to MSI’s research director, Will Fray, the market in 2024 was buoyed by Chinese stockpiling and trade disruptions, masking broader weaknesses in commodity consumption. With Chinese coal and iron ore inventories at record highs and global consumption trends remaining sluggish, freight volume growth in 2025 is expected to falter.

MSI forecasts an additional 36 million DWT to the global fleet in 2025, while trade growth will only require less than 100 million tons of cargo, creating an oversupply. Fleet inefficiencies that supported the market this year, such as route disruptions, are unlikely to reoccur.

Daily rental yields are projected to decline, with capesize rates falling by 19% and smaller vessel rates dropping by approximately 15%. Despite weak freight rate expectations, ship asset prices remain stable due to high new building costs.

MSI also warned of potential geopolitical risks, including protectionist trade policies under the new U.S. administration, which could disrupt trade patterns and shipping routes, further pressuring the market.