Since late September, China's steel market has seen a significant rebound in prices, initially driven by policy expectations. However, as prices stabilized, the market entered a phase influenced by supply-demand fundamentals. Despite the off-season, two key factors may trigger another surge.

The early-November market boost has subsided, creating a brief policy vacuum. Attention now shifts to the upcoming mid-December Politburo meeting, which could renew optimism for supportive measures. Yet, with the meeting's focus on debt resolution, its influence on steel prices may be limited.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policy could indirectly impact global sentiment. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December exceed 60%, potentially injecting positivity into steel markets.

As year-end approaches, China's economic support measures and stabilization in raw material costs may gradually strengthen the foundation for a steel price rebound, though caution remains in the short term.