A massive fire at Novelis's Oswego facility on September 16 shut down about 40% of US auto-grade aluminum sheet capacity, forcing a force majeure declaration. This severe supply shock, combined with the existing 50% import tariffs, caused the Midwest Premium to rise to a record US$0.77/lb as of October 6.

Oswego’s outage intensified domestic price pressures. Novelis is using its overseas plants to supply customers, but the high duties mean added cost.

However, although aluminum prices are high, weak demand and rising LME aluminum inventories worldwide could limit the upward trend in the coming months.