The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned that global excess steel capacity will rise from 601 million tons in 2024 to 721 million tons in 2027. Subsidies in non-market economies and the relocation of polluting technologies hinder capacity reduction and impede progress toward low-carbon goals.

Falling prices of conventional steel reduce the competitiveness of green steel and drive up its market premium. Due to high energy costs, overcapacity, and regulatory uncertainty, clean production projects representing 15.5 million tons of capacity have been postponed or suspended.

The adoption of technologies such as direct reduced iron (DRI) is driven more by market advantages than by environmental goals.

The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) points out that this imbalance disrupts market discipline and complicates the modernization efforts of steelmakers.