At the beginning of 2026, the nickel ore market faced strong uncertainty. Indonesia’s delays in RKAB mining approvals and expectations of lower production quotas created worries about a possible supply shortage in the second quarter.

Conditions in the Philippines added more pressure. Because it is the peak rainy season, major mining regions experienced shipping problems, which made it more difficult for imported ore to reach buyers on time.

Demand from the new energy sector remains relatively strong, supported by active exports of precursor materials and preparation work for Indonesian high‑pressure acid leaching (HPAL) projects. However, the stainless steel industry is finding it hard to manage higher raw‑material costs. Nickel pig iron producers are facing shrinking margins, and overall trading activity has slowed.

Looking ahead, progress in Indonesia’s administrative processes after the Lunar New Year will play an important role in shaping market expectations. As the rainy season in the Philippines ends around April, supply is expected to recover. By then, actual downstream demand will become the key factor. If buyers are unable to manage the higher costs, production cutbacks may occur in the second quarter.