The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) expects a nickel supply deficit of 32,000 tons for 2026. This outlook replaces a previous forecast of a 261,000-ton surplus and contrasts with the 283,000-ton oversupply for 2025. It represents the first such deficit since 2021.

Indonesian mining regulation changes, including lower extraction quotas and a revised pricing formula containing cobalt, iron, and chromium, drive this outlook.

Global primary nickel output remains projected at 3.715 million tons, down from previous levels. Meanwhile, consumption looks set to rise to 3.747 million tons, driven by stainless steel expansion, even as battery market preferences evolve. Recent supply chain interruptions have already forced Indonesian nickel processors to reduce production by at least 10%.