Shipping analysts say global carriers are unlikely to resume using the Red Sea and Suez Canal route soon, despite reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels will halt attacks on commercial vessels. The assaults, which began nearly two years ago, pushed shipping lines to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant distance to Europe–Asia trade routes.

Lars Jensen, president of Vespucci Maritime, urged caution, noting that a similar ceasefire earlier this year lasted only during a pause in the Israel–Hamas conflict. Once hostilities resumed, Houthi attacks restarted. He said recent minor incidents suggest the current truce remains fragile and that it is premature to assume carriers will immediately return unless their risk tolerance has changed.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said both carriers and insurers need far stronger assurances before shifting back to the Suez route. Although a few vessels have tested the waters, overall container transits through the canal have continued falling in 2025.