China’s steel market is expected to see steady growth in 2026 as macroeconomic conditions improve and external pressures ease. Manufacturing, new-quality productive forces, livelihood infrastructure, and steel exports will continue to support overall demand, though supply pressure remains high and prices are projected to fluctuate widely throughout the year.

Total steel demand, including exports, is forecast to rise by about 3% or more. Manufacturing-related steel consumption will remain robust. As new-quality productive forces grow, such as robots, unmanned factories and mines, expanded port and commercial facility use, and rising agricultural automation, steel demand will keep increasing. By contrast, real-estate-related construction steel demand will stay comparatively weak.

Steel exports are expected to remain large, with direct exports projected at around 100 million tons. Indirect exports through automobiles, appliances, and machinery will continue to grow.

Domestic steel production may surpass 1.5 billion tons, increasing by 3% year on year. Prices will experience broad volatility due to mixed macro and trade factors, though potential U.S.-China tariff adjustments and production discipline may lift market sentiment.