The Brazilian Steel Institute (IABr) estimates that the domestic steel production will fall by 2.2% in 2025, to 33.1 million tons, while the steel imports will reach the highest level in the last 15 years.

China accounts for 64% of Brazil's steel imports through state-subsidized pricing that undercuts local costs. Brazil's steel sector has already lost at least 5,000 jobs in recent months. In addition, investments have been cut by more than US$450 million, and several companies have suspended expansion and modernization projects.

By 2026, the steel sector estimates that imports could grow by 10% if no additional measures are taken. In this situation, domestic production and internal sales will fall by 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively, along with potential plant closures and layoffs. 

Therefore, IABr is asking the Brazilian government to take more effective trade defense measures like those of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico, to counter the influx of Chinese steel.