By the end of the first quarter of 2025, China’s medium and thick plate market faced a key contradiction: shrinking inventories amid rapidly growing production capacity. Social inventory levels dropped by 12% year on year, while spot stocks in the Lecong steel market, the largest steel distribution center in China, fell sharply by 42%. Supply shortages, especially in 12mm medium plates, are driven by mills scaling back production due to low-profit margins.

Meanwhile, major steelmakers are aggressively expanding. Baosteel Zhanjiang is launching a smart production line, and Ansteel has upgraded processes to boost yield. Overall, 15 million tons of new capacity is expected in 2025, potentially worsening the supply-demand imbalance in the short term.

Due to the widening basis difference and increasing market caution, along with concerns over future overcapacity, there is still uncertainty in price trends. Export challenges, such as Vietnam’s new anti-dumping tax and continued U.S. tariffs, also added pressure. Still, sectors like shipbuilding and offshore wind remain resilient, offering a glimmer of support for domestic demand and potential market rebalance ahead.