Macquarie Group's latest analysis warned of potential nickel ore production cuts in Indonesia, which could slash global nickel supply by over a third and push up prices.

Indonesia, a significant nickel producer, faces policy adjustments that may reduce export quotas sharply. The mining quotas of 272 million tons planned for 2024 are being considered to fall to 150 million tons this year, a 40% decrease from Macquarie's forecast. Although the likelihood of such a cut is seen as low, it adds to the upside risks for nickel prices.

Despite this, the global nickel market remains slightly oversupplied in 2025. Indonesian mine production, a key factor, could still trigger chain reactions in the global market. Policy adjustments by the Indonesian government will closely influence future nickel price trends.